UE by Uri EinavCEO & Founder · Decade as CMO · 3 exits · Mark Up, CMO on Demand

Predicted ROAS calculator - Is your spend actually going to break even?

Most burn-rate math borrows an industry benchmark. This fits a curve to your own retention and revenue and tells you the day you break even, or don't.

▸ Run the Runnable

Cost per acquisition (CAC)

Predicted ROAS Calculator

Fill in the details below and click Run to get your results instantly.

Cost per acquisition (CAC) *

Your average cost to acquire one customer, in dollars.

Day 1 retention (%) *

Percent of users still active on day 1.

Day 7 retention (%) *

Percent of users still active on day 7.

Day 30 retention (%) *

Percent of users still active on day 30.

LTV at point 1 ($) *

Real revenue per user measured at the day below.

Day of LTV point 1 *

Which day the LTV above reflects.

LTV at point 2 ($, optional) Optional

A later, real measured LTV. Leave blank if you only have one point.

Day of LTV point 2 Optional

Which later day the second LTV reflects.

Secure & private Results in ~30s

The real input form will appear here once the build finishes.

Note on your business model - helps frame the read Optional

Free · 45 sec · No signup to see your result

Last run — — runs — rated useful

A Runnable by Uri Einav,
CEO & Founder · Decade as CMO · 3 exits · Mark Up, CMO on Demand

Breakeven Report · D30 cohort, subscription appRunnable.ai

128days

Watch the payback

You break even on day 128. That's inside 6 months, but D180 ROAS only reaches 1.3x.

ROAS at D900.7x

ROAS at D1801.3x

ROAS at D3651.9x

Do this first

Push D30 retention up 2 points before adding spend - that alone moves breakeven from day 128 to day 104.

A Runnable by Uri EinavRunnable.ai

The workflow

What it actually does.

Three numbers go in, a curve gets fit to them, and your breakeven day comes out - no lookup tables involved.

PROGRESS0 / 1

Fit curves and compute ROAS

Fits your retention curve and a two-point monetization trend, then computes ROAS and breakeven

▸ Featured essayThe idea behind this Runnable · 2 min read

I ran the auction side. Founders only ever see one side of that number.

“The benchmark tells you what other people's economics look like. It has never told you when your own money comes back.”

At Bright Storm, the DSP I founded, I watched CAC get set in real time, bid by bid, auction by auction. Founders on the other side of that auction see a single blended number land in their dashboard and have to decide, alone, whether it's sustainable. Most reach for an industry benchmark to answer that question, because it's the only comparison they have.

The benchmark is the wrong comparison. Two founders with identical CAC can have completely different breakeven days, because breakeven isn't set by the market average, it's set by how fast their own retention curve decays and how much revenue their own users actually return. I see this every week now, mentoring founders and running Mark Up: the spend looks fine against the benchmark and terrible against their own numbers, or the reverse.

So this tool skips the benchmark entirely. It takes your three real numbers, fits a curve to them, and tells you the day your own money comes back.

Run complete

— · — · —

The evidence Show details

No industry benchmark appears anywhere in this calculation. Every number in your result is derived from the three numbers you entered - the same way Uri evaluates a founder's numbers on a real call.

How the math works

No benchmarks. Just the shape of your own numbers.

Curve, not average

Your D1/D7/D30 retention gets fit with a power-law curve and extended to day 365, so the shape reflects how your users actually decay, not a category average.

Anchored to your revenue

The LTV curve is scaled so it matches the one real revenue number you measured, not an assumed revenue-per-user figure pulled from someone else's cohort.

Breakeven, not a score

ROAS is checked against your CAC at D90, D180, and D365, and the first day it crosses even is called out - a specific day, not a grade.

Sensitivity, shown plainly

The fit reruns with D30 retention nudged up two points, so you can see how much your breakeven day moves on a small, realistic change.

You already know if the number feels off. Now see the actual day.

Free · 45 sec · No signup to see your result

▸ Questions

Before you enter your numbers

How accurate is this, really?

It's only as accurate as your D30 point. If that's a real measured cohort number, the fit is close to the math Uri would run on a call. If it's an early guess, treat the breakeven day as a range, not a fact - the how-this-is-calculated section under your result spells out exactly why.

What happens to my numbers after I submit them?

Your CAC, retention, and revenue numbers are used to compute your result and are not published, benchmarked against other founders, or shared. No industry data is pulled in, and none of your data is pushed out.

Who is this for, and who should skip it?

It's built for founders with usage-based retention - subscription apps, gaming, digital health, consumer tech - who have at least an early D1/D7/D30 cohort. Ecommerce founders can run it, but repeat-purchase economics fit the curve less precisely than session retention does.

Is it free? Do I have to sign up?

Free, about 45 seconds, no signup to see your breakeven day, chart, and ROAS table. After your full result is on screen, you'll see an option to leave your email and a link to book time with Uri directly - neither is required to see your numbers.

What if my breakeven day is bad news?

The verdict is stated plainly either way - scale-ready, watch the payback, or underwater past six months - with the specific day and D180 ROAS behind it. A slow breakeven is information, not a verdict on your business; it's exactly the number worth catching early.

▸ About the creator

Uri Einav

CEO & Founder · Decade as CMO · 3 exits · Mark Up, CMO on Demand

CEO & Founder. Decade as CMO. 3 exits. Uri runs Mark Up, a CMO-on-demand practice for founders who need real growth leadership without a full-time hire. He founded Bright Storm, a demand-side ad platform, where he lived CAC and auction mechanics from the buy side, and mentors growth-stage founders on unit economics.

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